Vote 2010 News: Why Democrats Will Keep the House
Hotline On Call highlighted the four advantages Democrats have over Republicans when it comes to this year’s fight to control the House of Representatives: money, turnout, opposition research, and modeling.
House Republicans are measuring the drapes in preparation for big gains in the lower chamber, convinced that Minority Leader John Boehner is going to become the next Speaker of the House. On a macro level, that wouldn't be a bad guess -- Democrats are saddled with bad polls and unpopular leaders, and the national mood wants a change from the status quo.
But the Democratic apocalypse isn't guaranteed just yet. In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they're not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won't come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.
That's not to say Republicans have no chance of taking back the House. Indeed, for every argument Democrats make about their strengths, Republicans have a counterargument. But Democrats have a compelling case. Here are the four reasons Democrats shouldn't be counted out of the majority, and Republicans shouldn't start counting their chickens, quite yet:
• Money: On both a macro level and a micro level, Republicans are seriously behind in the money chase. Most candidates enrolled in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program for endangered incumbents have huge cash leads over their rivals, and the DCCC has nearly twice as much on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee....
• Turnout: Beyond advertising, money pays for turnout operations, another area in which Democrats have a clear advantage. The Democratic National Committee has pledged $30 million in cash and services to turn out the estimated 15 million voters who cast their first ballots for President Obama in 2008, and the DCCC has put an average of five field staffers on the ground in 75 districts....
• Opposition Research: ... Democrats have engaged in what they characterize as an unprecedented research campaign, digging up dirt on GOP candidates in hopes of driving their negative numbers through the roof.
• Modeling: Hours after the polls closed in a special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District earlier this year, Boehner was still predicting that businessman Tim Burns (R) would beat former congressional Order Generic Cialis Online without Prescription aide Mark Critz (D). Republicans' polling showed Burns would win. Their polling was wrong, and Critz is now a congressman....Republicans did not, resulting in a blown call and a self-deprecating examination of the party's polling techniques....
Republicans still have a strong chance to gain an important toehold in the legislative branch. But they should not invest in new drapes just yet; dislodging a majority is harder than it seems, and Democrats are using every lever of power at their disposal to hold on.
But Hotline left out the fifth and most important reason we’ll keep the House this November: the hard work and support of OFA volunteers across the country. Every day volunteers are out knocking on doors and making calls to elect new Democrats to Congress and help keep strong representatives in Washington. This weekend our goal is to knock on 200,000 doors to build momentum for November—find an event near you and join in.